verify-market-cap --price 1258.62 --shares 1250081601 --reported 1570000000000 --currency CNY ============================================================ 市值验算 (Market Cap Verification) ============================================================ 股价 (Price): 1258.62 CNY 总股本 (Shares): 1.25B 计算市值: 1.57T CNY 报告市值: 1.57T CNY 偏差: 0.22% ✅ 验证通过, 偏差仅 0.22% verify-valuation --price 1258.62 --eps 65.14293559740185312910624944075150818894 --bvps 200.9897547636172272565109131623800293018 --fcf-per-share 46.71263861993277989218241441824084570300 --dividend 51.98123 ============================================================ 估值指标验算 (Valuation Verification) ============================================================ 当前股价: 1258.62 PE (TTM): 1258.62 / 65.14293559740186 = 19.32x 盈利收益率: 5.18% PB: 1258.62 / 200.9897547636172 = 6.26x ROE: 65.14293559740186 / 200.9897547636172 = 32.41% P/FCF: 1258.62 / 46.71263861993278 = 26.94x FCF Yield: 3.71% 股息率: 51.98123 / 1258.62 = 4.13% ✅ 以上指标均使用精确十进制计算, 无浮点误差 three-scenario --price 1258.62 --eps 65.14293559740185312910624944075150818894 --shares 12.50081601 --growth .08 .04 -.02 --pe 23 18 14 --years 3 --currency CNY ============================================================ 三情景估值模型 (Three-Scenario Valuation) ============================================================ 当前股价: 1258.62 CNY 当前EPS: 65.14293559740186 预测期: 3年 情景 年增速 目标PE 目标EPS 目标股价 涨跌幅 ------------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -------- 乐观 (Bull) 8% 23x 82.06 1887.4 +50.0% 中性 (Base) 4% 18x 73.28 1319.0 +4.8% 悲观 (Bear) -2% 14x 61.31 858.4 -31.8% ✅ 所有计算使用精确十进制, 结果可审计复现 cross-validate --field 2021 revenue --values {"公司年报": "106190154843.76", "StockAnalysis": "106190000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2021 revenue (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 106.19B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 106.19B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 106.19B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 106.19B CNY cross-validate --field 2021 parent_profit --values {"公司年报": "52460144378.16", "StockAnalysis": "52460000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2021 parent_profit (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 52.46B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 52.46B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 52.46B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 52.46B CNY cross-validate --field 2021 cfo --values {"公司年报": "64028676147.37", "StockAnalysis": "64029000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2021 cfo (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 64.03B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 64.03B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 64.03B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 64.03B CNY cross-validate --field 2021 capex --values {"公司年报": "3408784532.01", "StockAnalysis": "3409000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2021 capex (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 3.41B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 3.41B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 3.41B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 3.41B CNY cross-validate --field 2022 revenue --values {"公司年报": "124099843771.99", "StockAnalysis": "124100000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2022 revenue (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 124.10B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 124.10B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 124.10B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 124.10B CNY cross-validate --field 2022 parent_profit --values {"公司年报": "62717467870.12", "StockAnalysis": "62717000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2022 parent_profit (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 62.72B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 62.72B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 62.72B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 62.72B CNY cross-validate --field 2022 cfo --values {"公司年报": "36698595830.03", "StockAnalysis": "36699000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2022 cfo (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 36.70B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 36.70B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 36.70B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 36.70B CNY cross-validate --field 2022 capex --values {"公司年报": "5306546416.54", "StockAnalysis": "5307000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2022 capex (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 5.31B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 5.31B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 5.31B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 5.31B CNY cross-validate --field 2023 revenue --values {"公司年报": "147693604994.14", "StockAnalysis": "147694000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2023 revenue (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 147.69B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 147.69B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 147.69B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 147.69B CNY cross-validate --field 2023 parent_profit --values {"公司年报": "74734071550.75", "StockAnalysis": "74734000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2023 parent_profit (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 74.73B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 74.73B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 74.73B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 74.73B CNY cross-validate --field 2023 cfo --values {"公司年报": "66593247721.09", "StockAnalysis": "66593000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2023 cfo (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 66.59B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 66.59B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 66.59B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 66.59B CNY cross-validate --field 2023 capex --values {"公司年报": "2619755888.79", "StockAnalysis": "2620000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2023 capex (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 2.62B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 2.62B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 2.62B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 2.62B CNY cross-validate --field 2024 revenue --values {"公司年报": "170899152276.34", "StockAnalysis": "170899000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2024 revenue (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 170.90B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 170.90B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 170.90B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 170.90B CNY cross-validate --field 2024 parent_profit --values {"公司年报": "86228146421.62", "StockAnalysis": "86228000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2024 parent_profit (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 86.23B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 86.23B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 86.23B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 86.23B CNY cross-validate --field 2024 cfo --values {"公司年报": "92463692168.43", "StockAnalysis": "92464000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2024 cfo (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 92.46B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 92.46B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 92.46B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 92.46B CNY cross-validate --field 2024 capex --values {"公司年报": "4678712053.56", "StockAnalysis": "4679000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2024 capex (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 4.68B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 4.68B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 4.68B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 4.68B CNY cross-validate --field 2025 revenue --values {"公司年报": "168838102514.79", "StockAnalysis": "168838000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2025 revenue (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 168.84B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 168.84B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 168.84B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 168.84B CNY cross-validate --field 2025 parent_profit --values {"公司年报": "82320067101.68", "StockAnalysis": "82320000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2025 parent_profit (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 82.32B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 82.32B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 82.32B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 82.32B CNY cross-validate --field 2025 cfo --values {"公司年报": "61522204989.35", "StockAnalysis": "61522000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2025 cfo (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 61.52B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 61.52B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 61.52B CNY (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 61.52B CNY cross-validate --field 2025 capex --values {"公司年报": "3127594916.41", "StockAnalysis": "3128000000"} --unit CNY ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2025 capex (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 3.13B CNY ✅ 公司年报 : 3.13B CNY (偏差 0.01%) ✅ StockAnalysis : 3.13B CNY (偏差 0.01%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 3.13B CNY cross-validate --field shares --values {"公司公告或StockAnalysis": "1250081601", "新浪或新华或Investing": "1250081601"} --unit 同口径 ============================================================ 交叉验证: shares (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 1.25B 同口径 ✅ 公司公告或StockAnalysis : 1.25B 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 新浪或新华或Investing : 1.25B 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 1.25B 同口径 cross-validate --field 2026H1现金等价物 --values {"公司公告或StockAnalysis": "184811095482.62", "新浪或新华或Investing": "184811000000"} --unit 同口径 ============================================================ 交叉验证: 2026H1现金等价物 (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 184.81B 同口径 ✅ 公司公告或StockAnalysis : 184.81B 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 新浪或新华或Investing : 184.81B 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 184.81B 同口径 cross-validate --field 控股股东经济权益百分比 --values {"公司公告或StockAnalysis": "54.50", "新浪或新华或Investing": "54.499"} --unit 同口径 ============================================================ 交叉验证: 控股股东经济权益百分比 (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 54.50 同口径 ✅ 公司公告或StockAnalysis : 54.50 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 新浪或新华或Investing : 54.50 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 54.50 同口径 cross-validate --field 收盘价 --values {"公司公告或StockAnalysis": "1258.62", "新浪或新华或Investing": "1258.62"} --unit 同口径 ============================================================ 交叉验证: 收盘价 (Cross-Validation) ============================================================ 数据来源数: 2 参考中位数: 1,258.62 同口径 ✅ 公司公告或StockAnalysis : 1,258.62 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 新浪或新华或Investing : 1,258.62 同口径 (偏差 0.00%) ✅ 所有来源偏差 ≤ 2.0%, 数据一致 共识值 (加权中位数): 1,258.62 同口径 calc --expr (((650*(1+(-0.01))**1/(1+0.11)**1)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**2/(1+0.11)**2)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**3/(1+0.11)**3)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**4/(1+0.11)**4)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**5/(1+0.11)**5)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**6/(1+0.11)**6)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**7/(1+0.11)**7)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**8/(1+0.11)**8)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**9/(1+0.11)**9)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**10/(1+0.11)**10))+650*(1+(-0.01))**10*(1+0)/(0.11-0)/(1+0.11)**10+800)*100000000/1250081601 ============================================================ 精确计算 (Exact Calculator) ============================================================ 表达式: (((650*(1+(-0.01))**1/(1+0.11)**1)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**2/(1+0.11)**2)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**3/(1+0.11)**3)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**4/(1+0.11)**4)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**5/(1+0.11)**5)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**6/(1+0.11)**6)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**7/(1+0.11)**7)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**8/(1+0.11)**8)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**9/(1+0.11)**9)+(650*(1+(-0.01))**10/(1+0.11)**10))+650*(1+(-0.01))**10*(1+0)/(0.11-0)/(1+0.11)**10+800)*100000000/1250081601 结果: 506.89 精确值: 506.8944538505072 calc --expr (((760*(1+(0.04))**1/(1+0.10)**1)+(760*(1+(0.04))**2/(1+0.10)**2)+(760*(1+(0.04))**3/(1+0.10)**3)+(760*(1+(0.04))**4/(1+0.10)**4)+(760*(1+(0.04))**5/(1+0.10)**5)+(760*(1+(0.04))**6/(1+0.10)**6)+(760*(1+(0.04))**7/(1+0.10)**7)+(760*(1+(0.04))**8/(1+0.10)**8)+(760*(1+(0.04))**9/(1+0.10)**9)+(760*(1+(0.04))**10/(1+0.10)**10))+760*(1+(0.04))**10*(1+0.02)/(0.10-0.02)/(1+0.10)**10+1000)*100000000/1250081601 ============================================================ 精确计算 (Exact Calculator) ============================================================ 表达式: (((760*(1+(0.04))**1/(1+0.10)**1)+(760*(1+(0.04))**2/(1+0.10)**2)+(760*(1+(0.04))**3/(1+0.10)**3)+(760*(1+(0.04))**4/(1+0.10)**4)+(760*(1+(0.04))**5/(1+0.10)**5)+(760*(1+(0.04))**6/(1+0.10)**6)+(760*(1+(0.04))**7/(1+0.10)**7)+(760*(1+(0.04))**8/(1+0.10)**8)+(760*(1+(0.04))**9/(1+0.10)**9)+(760*(1+(0.04))**10/(1+0.10)**10))+760*(1+(0.04))**10*(1+0.02)/(0.10-0.02)/(1+0.10)**10+1000)*100000000/1250081601 结果: 974.77 精确值: 974.7684537885391 calc --expr (((800*(1+(0.07))**1/(1+0.09)**1)+(800*(1+(0.07))**2/(1+0.09)**2)+(800*(1+(0.07))**3/(1+0.09)**3)+(800*(1+(0.07))**4/(1+0.09)**4)+(800*(1+(0.07))**5/(1+0.09)**5)+(800*(1+(0.07))**6/(1+0.09)**6)+(800*(1+(0.07))**7/(1+0.09)**7)+(800*(1+(0.07))**8/(1+0.09)**8)+(800*(1+(0.07))**9/(1+0.09)**9)+(800*(1+(0.07))**10/(1+0.09)**10))+800*(1+(0.07))**10*(1+0.03)/(0.09-0.03)/(1+0.09)**10+1200)*100000000/1250081601 ============================================================ 精确计算 (Exact Calculator) ============================================================ 表达式: (((800*(1+(0.07))**1/(1+0.09)**1)+(800*(1+(0.07))**2/(1+0.09)**2)+(800*(1+(0.07))**3/(1+0.09)**3)+(800*(1+(0.07))**4/(1+0.09)**4)+(800*(1+(0.07))**5/(1+0.09)**5)+(800*(1+(0.07))**6/(1+0.09)**6)+(800*(1+(0.07))**7/(1+0.09)**7)+(800*(1+(0.07))**8/(1+0.09)**8)+(800*(1+(0.07))**9/(1+0.09)**9)+(800*(1+(0.07))**10/(1+0.09)**10))+800*(1+(0.07))**10*(1+0.03)/(0.09-0.03)/(1+0.09)**10+1200)*100000000/1250081601 结果: 1,587.67 精确值: 1587.6699419628524